SO England have decided to go with Ian Bell at No 3, drop Ravi Bopara and give Jonathan Trott perhaps the toughest debut imaginable at the Brit Oval this week. A nation's hopes will be pinned on risk.

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The whole series depends on the fifth Test, but do not be surprised if Trott fails in the first innings and if Australia retain the Ashes with a drawn match. The Kennington pitch, with an increasing tendency to blandness these days, might be the ultimate decider.

As for winning, Trott is an admirable player with skill and character, but this match could be an ordeal because he is a more vulnerable starter than average. One can only wish him well.

England's gesture of drafting Monty Panesar into the squad to join Graeme Swann will fool no one. It would be extraordinary if two spinners were to be selected -- madness in fact. One suspects that the selectors will hope that Steve Harmison can do the business as he has done in county cricket at the Oval. I would be tempted to drop James Anderson, my favourite bowler when in form, and try Ryan Sidebottom to keep at least one end tight.

Harmison was worse than mediocre at Headingley in the fourth Test, but Anderson was dreadful. It was quite a shock to see him struggle, apparently slightly injured. Nevertheless, defeat was down to the batting.

The national selector Geoff Miller admitted that "difficult selection decisions" had been made after a prolonged meeting at Trent Bridge. "Ravi Bopara has been going through a tough time with the bat in this series and we have decided to leave him out of the squad for this game," he said. "He will be extremely disappointed, but remains very much part of our plans for the future, and I am sure that he has the talent and temperament to regain his place in the side.

"Ravi’s omission means Jonathan Trott will make his Test debut at The Brit Oval. Having been part of the squad at Headingley, he was the next batsman in line in our view, and this rewards him for the excellent form he has shown in county cricket both this summer and with England Lions over the winter.

"Ian Bell will bat at three next week which is a position he has occupied for England before, and we were delighted to see both him and Jonathan make centuries for Warwickshire this week. Andrew Flintoff and James Anderson’s injuries are much improved with rest and treatment, and we anticipate that both players will be fit and available for selection next Thursday."

Ladbrokes have listed Trott at 11/2 to score a century in the Test. With four batsman in the top five failing to reach double figures in the first innings at Headingley, the bookmakers are offering 4/1 against Strauss and Cook failing again, 7/2 Bell and Collingwood and 3/1 Trott.

Andrew Flintoff is 12/1 to take five or more wickets in an innings in his final Test and England are 2/1 to score 500 or more in their first innings.

Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison said: "Despite a poor performance at Headingley England are currently being well-supported ahead of the Oval. We've taken twice as much money on them as we have on the Aussies - but that may be because they're twice the price."

England are 7/2 to win the match and regain the Ashes, with Australia 6/4 and the draw priced at 6/5.